Now thats the Phillies team I know and love. Surprise me with a split in Arizona, and then come back and lose two of three to lowly San Francisco. I had almost forgotten about this lovable trend that we saw so many times last year before their great stretch run. Sweep the Mets in New York, then lose two of three to Kansas City. Is it a huge deal? Not terribly, especially with an overachieving Marlins team leading the division (2005 Washington Nationals anyone?). The bullpen has been lights out so you can’t really get on J.C. Romero for giving up the winning home-run. For now I’ll chalk it up as one of the few games that the bullpen will let get away from them. A few things to look at as the Phils take a day off before welcoming the Braves into town tomorrow night.

-Ryan Howard looks like he’s seeing the ball better. He’s 3 for his last 11 and more importantly he’s making good contact even when he’s getting out. Take this for what its worth, but having Jimmy Rollins back in the clubhouse and in the lineup could be a big boost to the big man. He’s still gonna strike out a ton, but he always did even when he was hot last year.

-Welcome back Jimmy Rollins. 3-5 with a homer his first game back, its good to have the reigning NL MVP back in the lineup. The Phillies finished a winning April largely without J-roll so they should really start clicking with him back in the lineup.

-The Phillies starting pitching reminds me of when I was 10 years old on the 4th of July and the whole extended family was walking down to the beach to set off some fireworks. I was walking next to my uncle who had the box of fireworks in one hand, and a lit cigar in the other as I just waiting for an ash to fall the wrong way and to blow us all to bits. Luckily it didn’t and so far the rotation has been serviceable but when your number 2 is one of your biggest question marks, you’re in for a long summer.

- Depends which Braves team shows up…they won six in a row..and then lost three of four to the Pirates. They’ve had their share of rotation problems with John Smoltz and Tom Glavine trading spots on the DL, and Mike Hampton likely never coming off. Especially after losing two of three in San Fran the Phils have to take two of three from their division rival at home.

-Interleague play has its perks (Cubs/White Sox, Yankees/Mets) but after the Braves, the Phils have a three game set against the Blue Jays and then go right back to NL-only action. We’re a bit removed from Joe Carter and Mitch Williams, this is stupid.

Following their get-away day win over the Giants Sunday, the Phillies
hit the road for a big early season test in Arizona. The Phightins
stand at 18-13 and in first place in the NL East, a half game ahead of
the Mets and Marlins. They’ve avoided their trademark slow start, and
they’ve overcome some key injuries and a struggling Ryan Howard, but
the Phillies are about to find out just how they compare to the
National League’s elite. The D-backs own the best record in baseball
and have done it with equally good pitching and hitting. Arizona’s
great pitching is no surprise as it was the arms that carried them to
the NLCS last year. A staff headlined by Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and
an aging Randy Johnson own the second best ERA in baseball (3.36) and
have allowed the second fewest hits in the majors. The difference this
year has been a suprisingly explosive lineup.  Last year Arizona was
29th in the majors in batting average, and 26th in runs scored. This
year they’re 7th in batting average and 2nd in runs scored. The
Phillies meanwhile - while they’ve recently found a way to win -  the
offense has yet to establish itself.  Chase Utley and Pat Burrell have
accounted for almost half the team’s home runs (22) and more than a
third of the RBI (56). While Howard has shown signs of progress
recently, don’t hold your breath for him to come out of his funk
against the D-backs strong pitching.  The Phils have the bad luck of
having Cole Hamels miss the Arizona series but at the same time catch
a break by avoiding Diamondbacks hurler Dan Haren (4-1, 3.13).  As for
where exactly Arizona’s potent offense came from? A couple names to
look out for…Conor Jackson (.350, 5 HR, 25 RBI), Josh Upton (.346, 5
HR, 16 RBI), Chris Young (.244 6 HR 15 RBI), and Mark Reynolds (.226,
7 HR 24 RBI). It might not be the Mets, and you might need an
afternoon nap to stay up through the late west coast start times but
this series will give the best indicator to date of where the
defending 2007 NL East Champs stand. With little offensive production
from anyone other than Utley and Burrell over the weekend, the Phils
struggled to win two of three from the Giants.  That combined with the
D-back’s superior pitching makes for a tall order.  Be more than happy
with a split, but not all that surprised if Arizona takes three of four.

It was a bit of a rocky start…and it took them a while to get over .500…but all in all the Phillies avoided the slow start that has haunted them the last few seasons as they finished April with a 15-13 record.  They did it largely without last year’s MVP, they did it without their 2-hitter, and they did it during a stretch where people were surprised if Ryan Howard made contact.  The starting pitching wasn’t great but it was better than expected. The bullpen was phenomenal. And Chase Utley and Pat Burrell put together a 2-man offense to get the Phils through.  As of today (May 2) the Phillies sit atop the NL East.  If you told me the Phightins wouldn’t have Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, or (for all intents and purposes) Ryan Howard for the better part of April, and would be at the top of the NL East a month in,  I would have punched you in the face.  But indeed they are, and things look like they should get even better.  Victorino returned to the starting lineup last night, and Howard seems to be coming around as he had two huge hits last night including the game winning homer in the 8th.  Brad “Light Out” Lidge has been exactly that: 7-7 in save opportunities with a 0.00 ERA.  Adam Eaton hasn’t recorded a decision but he has’t been all that bad either. And the reigning NL MVP is a little more than a week away from returning to the starting lineup.  It’s a long road Phillies fans, but so far you gotta be enjoying the ride.

“I knew he had it the whole way,” Charlie Manuel said with a laugh when asked about Eric Bruntlett’s game saving play to end last night’s Phillies-Mets game. It was a hell of a play by Bruntlett, and a nice play by Ryan Howard on 1-hop throw to seal a 5-4 victory and improve to 2-4 vs. New York this season. Other than an 8-2 Mets win, the two ‘rivals’ have been pretty evenly matched. In their six games this season, neither team is hitting the ball real well (both around .230), the pitching has been pretty good (both ERA slightly above 3.00), but the Phils have left almost ten more guys on base. In a series where 5 of the 6 games have been decided by 3 runs or less, every guy LOB is gonna come back to bite you.

Pedro Feliz had a huge pinch hit home-run last night but Chase Utley and Pat Burrell have been the only two guys who have really shown up for this team since Jimmy Rollins went down - and they were doing well even before that. That statement will probably reinforce a recent accusation that I (along with many others) blindly worship Utley…

I guess you worship at the altar of Utley also, considering there was no referencing that that piss poor throw was counted as HIS 4th error this season.
So I guess even though it was Utley’s error that caused the run to come in and he left at least 5 runners in scoring position during his at-bats during the game, that’s ok, simply because Chase sits at the right hand of God in the minds of most Philly fans, and he is allowed to not be perfect all the time.
To acknowledge that its a POSSIBILITY that Chase lost them the game, is almost incomprehensible to some, and nearly blasphemous to others. So quotes like “Howard will win a lot of games with his bat for the Phillies this year, but he’s gonna give at least a handful away with his glove.”, can really be true for any player, especially considering that it happened to Utley on Sunday. But since Chase is such a favorite, that will be forgiven, forgotten, or not acknowledged at all. But I digress because facts like that tend to take the fun from the haters that like bashing Howard. - Steve

I’m pretty sure I said it was a bad throw by Utley, in fact I said exactly that - it was a bad throw from Utley, but a good first baseman makes that play - but it wasn’t exactly an all out effort by Howard to make the play. Sure Utley has 4 errors to Howard’s 1 - but Utley had a total of 10 last year - I’m not really worried. Also, Utley is hitting .351, leads the majors in homers with 8, and he and Burrell are tied for the team lead 17 RBI. And the effort and hustle are always there.

Howard may only be credited with one error, but you’re telling me he’s not a huge liability at first base? He made a nice play on Bruntlett’s throw to end the game last night, but if you think the fact that Howard has only one error and that’s reflective of how good a fielder he is than you probably also thought Creatine was the reason for the home run surge in the late 90s. He’s not even average at first base, he’s well below average. To be fair, he’s not in the lineup for his defense - he’s there to hit 45 HR and drive in 130 runs. The 200 strikeouts don’t bother me all that much but when he’s struggling at the plate - he did look a little better last night - everything else is gonna get magnified. Also, Utley signed a 7yr-85 mil deal. The Phillies were likely willing to give Howard an Albert Pujols like 7yr-$100mil deal but he (and/or his dad in his ear) are asking for A-Rod money. You want A-Rod money, or anything even close to it, play some freakin’ defense and bust your butt on every play.

Most of the writers and media in this city lobbied for the Phillies to pay the $10 million he wanted in arbitration.  Howard has gotten a complete pass with the fans and the media in Philadelphia so give me a break with this ‘haters that like bashing Howard’ BS.

Whether its Howard or whoever else, someone else needs to step up with Burrell and Utley now that Rollins is out for at least another 15 days. The starting pitching has been there, the bullpen other than Gordon has been pretty decent. The hitting has been spotty, and the fielding has been terrible. This 7 game road trip will go a long way in determining just what kind of start the Phightins get off to this year.

Poor pitching, poor defense, and yes, one blown call cost the Phillies a sweep of the Cubs yesterday at Citizens Bank Park. The Phils did well to take two of three from Chicago, after dropping two of three to the Mets, but they couldn’t close the deal for a couple different reasons:

We’ll start with U of Penn product Mark DeRosa’s phantom home run that has, once again gotten everyone talking about instant replay in baseball. DeRosa was given a home run on a ball that replays showed was clearly foul. I wrote about my feelings on instant replay last year and my stance hasn’t changed one bit. You can read last year’s article for my full take on it, but basically, replay doesn’t belong in a game where a hitter is a Hall of Famer if they fail 70% of the time. The umpires get calls right a a much higher rate than that, and human error is part of the beauty of baseball. The other part is that Ryan Howard should have made the play on Chase Utley’s throw on that double play ball in the 10th - I’ll get back to this in a minute - and Rudy Seanez walked two guys in the top of the 10th to set up the go ahead run for Chicago - inexcusable. The point being, DeRosa’s home run itself did not cost the Phillies the game.  And take a look at hockey, college football and pro-football, and its not like they even get all the calls right with replay.

The difference in the game can be measured at first base as much as it can be measured by a foul/fair home run call. Ryan Howard is a tremendous talent, a great hitter, and an RBI machine. But he is an AWFUL, AWFUL defensive first baseman. He is nothing short of a liability on defense. Am I really criticizing a guy who is probably gonna hit 45 HR and drive in at least 125 runs? Yes, you better believe it. He got paid his $10 million, he won his arbitration, so you know what, put some effort into your defense. Stop being a one dimensional player. If he brought his defense around, then the Phillies really wouldn’t have a leg to stand on in terms of putting him through arbitration year after year and holding out from paying him. And its not just that he didn’t make the play - and it was a bad throw from Utley, but a good first baseman makes that play - but it wasn’t exactly an all out effort by Howard to make the play. And afterwards he says, “it happens.” Not, “that’s a play I should make.” The polar opposite was Derek Lee saving the game for the Cubs in the bottom of the 9th. Carlos Ruiz hit a one-hop shot towards first base that should have won the game. But Lee, a 3-time Gold Glover, made a spectacular play and got Ruiz at first to end the inning. Howard doesn’t make that play in a million years. Howard will win a lot of games with his bat for the Phillies this year, but he’s gonna give at least a handful away with his glove.

I’ll let Sarge intro the A.L. preview:

Well we’ll take a look at the hitters, the guys who hit the ball, and the pitchers, the guys who throw it. And then we’ll pick a team to win each division and pick one to win the World Series AS WELL.

Thanks Sarge, on to the AL East…

1. Red Sox - Better/more experienced pitching staff than the Yankees although the injury to Schilling hurts. The lineup isone of the strongest in the AL but top-heavy. The difference between first place and second place in the East will be the slightly better rotation and a better middle bullpen. Mariano and Papelbon are a wash…but would you rather have Okajima or Farsnworth/Hawkins coming into a jam in the 8th? Thought so.

2. Yankees - As usual the loser of the East race will take the Wild Card. The Yankees lineup is definitely better top to bottom than the Red Sox but the rotation has a couple question marks - Pettitte’s health, Mussina is a 4 inning pitcher, and how are the kids gonna respond? Hughes will probably be fine, but Kennedy is unproven. And before you all jump up and be like you forgot about Joba in the Yanks ‘pen - the plan is to bring him from the pen into the rotation a few months into the season - so thats what I’m basing that on. If he stays in the ‘pen - he still has to prove himself over the course of the season, but more importantly it leaves the rotation as a bit of a question mark. If he comes into the rotation, first he has to prove he can succeed as a starter, and then you have Farnsworth and Hawkins as your setup guys.

3. Blue Jays - Have an ace in Halladay and a lot of parts, but #1 they would need Boston and/or New York to fall apart, and then be able to take advantage. Burnett is a solid 2, BJ Ryan is coming off an injury, and there are some old/banged up pieces in that lineup including Frank Thomas, Matt Stairs and Scott Rolen.

4. Rays - A few years away from really contending. They’ll be competitive on a game by game basis (they own the Yankees head to head), but not competitive as in threatening for the division. Nice young core and pitching staff if Kazmir can stay healthy.

5. Orioles - A 6-1 O’s start is something not even Scott Templeton could make up. So they started strong including a sweep of a Seattle team that should finish top 2 in the West. Unfortunately its just another Mid-Atlantic Mirage much like the Nationals stayed in first place until the All-Star break under Frank Robinson a few years back. It would be great if they could keep this up for at least that long. Camden Yards is always the first stop of Preakness weekend and it could be fun to have a winning atmosphere in a great ballpark in the early summer months.

AL Central

1. Tigers - Yes, the 0-7 Tigers. That lineup is gonna wake up sooner or later (clearly I’m counting on sooner) although I still can’t understand paying Miguel Cabrera that much money up front when this guy has a severe lack of motivation. He showed up to camp in better shape, but now that he’s gotten paid how long is that really gonna last? The rotation isn’t solid 1-5, but it should be good enough to win the division with those bats. Call me a hater but I still don’t buy Todd Jones as a closer and they won’t make it to the Series with him.

2. Indians - Its possible they missed their best opportunity at the Series last year when they blew a 3-1 series lead against the Red Sox. They do have a staff that is a legit 1-5. Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook, Lee, and Byrd are slotted exactly as they should be. They could struggle to score runs - but with the Tigers slow start, the window of opportunity is there.

3. White Sox - Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen are never dull - that much I will give them. What I don’t get though, is Williams claiming he wants to win now and then trading away a legit number 2 pitcher in Jon Garland (as a side note Garland is 1-1 and had one great start and one lousy start). Also interesting to watch is what will happen with Joe Crede. The White Sox couldn’t trade him in the Spring because of questions about his health, and now that “Joey Balls” has started out red hot, Williams risks a riot if he trades the beloved clutch 3B to make way for prospect Josh Fields. So far the pitching staff has looked pretty good including kids John Danks and Gavin Floyd (I know Philly fans, I know). And the middle of the lineup is still formidable with Orlando Cabrera, Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, and Jim Thome.

4. Twins - They trade Santana (and get nothing by the way) but extend Nathan and sign Livan Hernandez. Looks like a team that doesn’t know if its coming or going, trying to win this year or rebuild. They’ve got some nice pieces still like Joe Mauer and Francisco Liriano, but its clearly not enough to contend. They gotta make up their mind and figure out which way they want to go.

5. Royals - The Royals could be competitive this year, but like the Rays I think it’ll be more on a game to game basis than an actual shot at the division basis. Manager Trey Hillman has had success in Japan turning bad teams into title contenders, but much like then its not gonna be a one year project.

AL West

1. Angels - Despite the injuries to Escobar (season, possibly career-ending) and Lackey, I still like the Angels to come out of the West and out of the AL. The lineup is potent with the addition of Tori Hunter and the Halos had the best record in the majors late last September until they ran out of gas and lost in the first round of the playoffs. Jon Garland is a welcome addition to the rotation and the always strong bullpen should be the same this year. The question mark is closer Francisco Rodriguez who is in the last year of his contract and was not extended. The fact that its a contract year should be enough to motivate K-rod, and while it won’t be the Angels paying him, he’ll land a nice chunk of change on the open market if he turns in another stellar year.

2. Mariners - possibly the best 1,2 combo in the Majors with Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard. Also a decent #3 in Carlos Silva. They’re gonna have a tough time scoring runs though with Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre both coming off down years (Beltre has done nothing since coming from LA) and closer JJ Putz didn’t waste any time heading to the disabled list on April 2nd. With the A’s rebuilding and the Rangers lack of a pitching staff they should lock up the two spot in the West.

3. A’s - Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, and Huston Street are all sure to be involved in plenty of trade talks and a few of them will probably even get traded before the July 31st deadline. Billy Beane and his club are in rebuilding mode and will act accordingly. But with Blanton and Harden in the rotation for the first half of the season, expect the A’s to hang around for the first half.

4. Texas - Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla are the top two in this rotation. I apologize in advance for the nightmares and flashbacks that sentence will give all Phillies fans.

ALDS NLDS

Tigers over Red Sox Cubs over Braves

Angels over Yankees D-backs over Phillies

ALCS NLCS

Angels over Tigers D-backs over Cubs

World Series

D-backs over Angels

I just haven’t been able to find the time to put together an in depth team by team preview, so if you want that check out Eaglescast where Mike Rippe and I did just that.  Here’s the cliff notes version, it fits nicely under the brim of your hat or tucked into your tie…

NL Central

1. Cubs - Fukudome looks like the real deal, Zambrano is a true ace and the head of a good staff, they’ve got power in Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano, and if Kerry Wood pans out as a closer…maybe, just maybe they celebrate the 100 year anniversary of their last World Series title in style.

2/3  Reds/ Brewers -  These teams could finish in either order.  The pitching I give a slight edge to the Reds, and so far Johnny Cueto looks like the ROY talent he was expected to be.  The Brew-crew has some bashers in Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, and don’t forget about JJ Hardy. The pitching staff is a little iffy/old and let’s see how long they let Gagne blow games before they put Turnbow back in the closer’s spot.

4/5 Cardinals/ Astros - The Cardinals seem a bit dysfunctional and the Astros a bit disjointed.  The Cardinals weren’t even a very good team when they won they World Series,  and they’ve gotten worse by the year since.  Ed Wade is GM of the Astros which says enough for Philly fans.  If that doesn’t tell you enough this will: he traded for Miguel Tejada literally hours before his name came out in the Mitchell report.  If he sleeps on it for one more night, or for the love of God just waits out of curiosity to see who’s named (and Tejada’s name had been out there), he gets Miggy at a discount.

6. Pirates - Still haven’t been out to the new park yet.  I’d like to go.  Ian Snell, Freddy Sanchez, Jason Bay.

NL West

1. D-backs - Best pitching staff in the NL. If Randy Johnson can get back to even close to his old form, the D-backs are gonna ride Brandon Webb, Danny Haren and the Big Unit to the World Series.  They have a tough time scoring, but the only thing that kept them from the series last year was the white-hot Rockies team  they met in the NLCS.

2. Rockies - They’re a tough team to figure seeing that at the end of last season the Rockies personified a cocaine binge that would have made Lindsay Lohan proud.  They couldn’t be stopped in the last month of the season and then blew through Phillies and D-backs before crashing hard and getting swept by the Red Sox. They’ve got some nice young players (like Troy Tulowitzki) and an MVP caliber player in Matt Holiday, but we’ll see if they can put it together over the long hall.

3. Dodgers - the NYY West and its laid back manager agree withs the laid back LA lifestyle. The pitching staff is strong, the lineup is a bit intriguing, but if they think they’re gonna get anything out of a fat and slow Andruw Jones they’re kidding themselves.  He came into camp 10 pounds heavier than he was in a contract year where he was clearly out of shape and underperformed.  He couldn’t get motivated in a contract year, he plays for a notorious player’s manager in Joe Torre, and you think this guy is gonna do anything?? Fat chance.  thank you, thank you.

4. Padres - They always seem to be there at the end, but its always with a record thats barely above .500.  There’s no arguing with a pitching staff that boasts Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Greg Maddux, but I’m just not buying their lineup.

5. Giants - Yea, I know the Phillies lowballed Aaron Rowand, but I still can’t understand why a guy who plays the game the way he does, and will literally run through a fence to win, would go to a team that has no shot. 5 years is nice in terms of security , and maybe he feels he already won a ring, so now its time to focus on staying put somewhere.  For the Giants, he’s a great player to start the post-Barry era with.

Stop me when this sounds familiar….Mets jump out to an early lead, Phillies come back off New York bullpen combined with poor fielding, Phillies win, Willie Randolph makes comments supposedly reflecting confidence but in reality are transparent and reflect the soft nature of his team.  Sounds like last year never ended.  I listened to Mike and the Mad Dog to get a little New York perspective on my way to work after the game and they echoed some of the things I’ve been saying.  Chris said that the Mets are missing something, they have no swagger, they have only a couple players who are gamers where the Phillies are a hard nosed team that has a bunch of gamers.  Mike meanwhile said the Mets have to get off to a fast start and after 2 losses to Atlanta and another to Philly, this can’t be overlooked.  Now I’m not calling New York dead by any means, I’ll save that for the New York Post tabloid.  But everything listed above basically sums up why I picked the Mets to finish 3rd in the East. They have a good starting rotation - very good with Pedro, but still good without him - but an iffy lineup and a leaky bullpen at best. They’ve got one guy who you look at and you think, “yea, he’s a ballplayer” and thats David Wright. He’s the only guy who showed up down the stretch as his teammates crumbled around him.  On the Phillies, you’ve got Rollins, Utley, Victorino, Howard speaks for himself, Burrell has shown some of that fire within the past year and a half, Jenkins exudes that hard-nosed style - and thats the core of this team.  Beltran talks, Reyes has been a shell of himself since last August, and Willie is the worst of all.  When asked if the Phillies have their number after yesterday’s game he says “No…and if we win the next 10 games it’ll be a mute point.”  WELL WILLIE, YOU’RE NOT GOING TO.  You’ve gotta say something there, but how can you not see right through that.  Basically he’s saying that if something happens that in all likelihood will not happen - then we’ll be ok.  Thats exactly the fake confidence that I’ve been talking about, and he’s passed it on to his players.  That’s the problem with these former Yankees. They just assume things will end up in their favor and in the meantime they watch as the building crumbles around them - the whole time trying to convince themselves that everything will work out in the long run. Hey David Wright, if you want to actually play with some winners, you can still demand a trade after this season and be part of the best infield in the Majors for at least two years.

Those of you who keep up with the site know I liked to make a note of Sarge’s keys to the game last year. No such luck this year, but Sarge has already rattled off some gems such as my personal favorite: “Ken Griffey and Ken Griffey Jr. are one of those Father-Dad combinations.” That slightly edges him calling Bob Gibson, Mel Gibson.

The Phillies escaped Cincinnati with a split of their four game set thanks in large part to another hot start from Pat Burrell. It’s good to see Burrell light it up out of that gate, but we have seen this before and then watch him go ice cold. But he is in a contract year, and I will say that he looks looser and more comfortable at the plate. Hopefully he keep it up. Cole Hamels pitched well after a rocky first inning, and Brad Lidge in the 9th tried to make it interesting but all in all pitched alright.

Next up for the 3-4 Phils are the 2-3 Mets, fresh off a 2 game sweep at the hands of the Braves. The Phillies will miss Johan Santana and an injured Pedro Martinez but will no doubt be in a hostile environment at Shea stadium in its last season. I said preseason I think New York is soft - we’ll see how they respond to hosting the team that took the division from them in less than three weeks at the end of last season. Moyer, Kendrick and Eaton don’t exactly help you sleep at night, but Perez, and Pelfrey aren’t gonna scare anyone (although I’m expecting a good year from Maine).

I’m expecting 2 of 3 from the Phillies - although a sweep could really get in the Mets’ head and Willie Randolph in hot water. And of all teams, Eaton actually pitched well against the New York last year (2-0, 3.86 ERA in 4 starts), and we’ll see if that translates to ‘08.